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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
0
0
0
0
0
8
21
29
0
8
41
49

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
0
3
54
57
0
8
21
29
0
11
95
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
41
41
0
0
0
0
0
16
43
59
0
16
84
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
0
3
51
54
0
8
20
27
0
10
90
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 5.18 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.160
true Heidke skill score: -0.132 true Heidke skill score: -0.107
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.160
true Kuipers skill score: -0.244 true Kuipers skill score: -0.401
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.046 0.204
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.132
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.049 -0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.512
probability of detection:
0.000 0.273 0.221
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.276
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.947 0.276
samples: 49 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 46.23 %coverage: 100.00