CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
0
25
0
0
0
0
7
17
7
31
23
26
7
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
0
25
12
22
15
49
7
17
7
31
35
48
22
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
16
0
45
0
0
0
0
13
30
13
55
41
46
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
9
0
24
11
21
14
47
7
16
7
30
33
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.411 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.09 0.00 4.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 1.02 1.41
Heidke skill score: 0.116 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.212 true Heidke skill score: 0.115
Kuipers skill score: 0.116 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.264 true Kuipers skill score: 0.116
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.226
threat score:
0.364 0.293 0.152
equitable threat score:
0.264 0.000 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.215 -0.008 0.013
probability of detection:
0.696 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.457 0.458 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.360 0.000 0.774
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.360 0.551 0.774
samples: 56 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 53.33 %coverage: 100.00