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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
12
6
29
11
12
6
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
28
24
76
11
12
6
29
35
40
30
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
41
21
100
38
41
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
27
23
72
10
11
6
28
33
38
29
100

hitrate: 0.207 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.90 0.97
Heidke skill score: -0.190 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.190 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.207
threat score:
0.000 0.318 0.113
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 -0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.700 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.793
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.632 0.793
samples: 29 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 27.62 %coverage: 100.00