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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
8
3
3
14
8
3
15
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
7
11
61
79
8
3
3
14
15
14
76
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
46
46
0
0
0
0
31
12
12
54
31
12
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
7
10
58
75
8
3
3
13
14
13
72
100

hitrate: 0.115 hitrate: 0.133
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 0.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 5.64 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.327 Heidke skill score: -0.300
true Heidke skill score: -0.616 true Heidke skill score: -0.101
Kuipers skill score: -0.327 Kuipers skill score: -0.300
true Kuipers skill score: -0.603 true Kuipers skill score: -0.182
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.115
threat score:
0.000 0.134 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.226 0.000 -0.283
equitable threat score:
-0.068 0.007 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.039
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.861 0.786
samples: 26 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 24.76 %coverage: 100.00