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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
0
0
0
0
2
2
11
15
6
3
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
33
28
23
84
2
2
11
15
39
31
34
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
5
0
25
0
0
0
0
10
10
55
75
30
15
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
32
27
22
81
2
2
11
14
38
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.413
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 0.00 1.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.71 0.44
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.120
true Heidke skill score: 0.512 true Heidke skill score: 0.155
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.120
true Kuipers skill score: 0.449 true Kuipers skill score: 0.162
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.733
threat score:
0.100 0.322 0.289
equitable threat score:
0.455 0.000 0.407
equitable threat score:
0.056 0.048 0.184
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.103 0.903 0.324
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.000 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.667 0.267
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00