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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
0
3
11
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
1
5
85
91
0
3
4
7
1
8
96
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
21
29
50
0
21
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
1
5
81
87
0
3
4
7
1
8
91
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.086
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 11.38 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.371
true Heidke skill score: -0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.371
true Kuipers skill score: -0.318 true Kuipers skill score: -0.265
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.053 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.176
equitable threat score:
-0.008 -0.022 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.364
probability of detection:
0.000 0.625 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.945 0.429
samples: 14 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 13.33 %coverage: 100.00