CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
0
0
0
0
0
3
12
15
0
4
17
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
4
20
60
84
0
3
12
15
4
24
77
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
24
29
0
0
0
0
0
14
57
71
0
19
81
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
4
19
57
80
0
3
11
14
4
23
73
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 3.50 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.016 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.022 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.227 0.150
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.018
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.012 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.706
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.156
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.762 0.200
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00