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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
12
0
0
0
0
6
9
5
20
6
11
15
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
12
4
16
53
73
6
9
5
20
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
31
38
0
0
0
0
19
28
16
63
19
34
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
11
4
15
50
70
6
9
5
19
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.156 hitrate: 0.200
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 2.70 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.266 Heidke skill score: -0.200
true Heidke skill score: -0.325 true Heidke skill score: -0.165
Kuipers skill score: -0.266 Kuipers skill score: -0.200
true Kuipers skill score: -0.330 true Kuipers skill score: -0.224
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.190 0.060
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.000 -0.212
equitable threat score:
-0.055 -0.042 -0.114
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.593 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.781 0.750
samples: 32 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 30.48 %coverage: 100.00