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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
2
37
39
0
2
40
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
31
31
63
0
2
37
39
1
33
71
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
0
0
0
0
5
88
93
0
5
95
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
30
30
60
0
2
35
37
1
31
68
100

hitrate: 0.881 hitrate: 0.648
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.97
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.91 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.821 Heidke skill score: 0.471
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.371
Kuipers skill score: 0.821 Kuipers skill score: 0.471
true Kuipers skill score: -0.038 true Kuipers skill score: 0.468
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.881
threat score:
0.000 0.477 0.507
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.248 0.228
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.925
probability of detection:
0.000 0.939 0.521
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.051
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.508 0.051
samples: 42 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00