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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
0
0
0
5
4
43
52
5
4
50
59

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
7
39
46
5
4
43
52
5
11
89
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
8
7
73
88
8
7
85
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
7
37
44
5
4
41
50
5
10
85
100

hitrate: 0.729 hitrate: 0.476
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 0.00 1.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 4.18 0.58
Heidke skill score: 0.593 Heidke skill score: 0.214
true Heidke skill score: -0.116 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.593 Kuipers skill score: 0.214
true Kuipers skill score: -0.104 true Kuipers skill score: 0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.729
threat score:
0.000 0.140 0.439
equitable threat score:
-0.052 0.000 -0.072
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.048 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.860
probability of detection:
0.000 0.636 0.483
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.173
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.848 0.173
samples: 59 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 56.19 %coverage: 100.00