CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
25
7
3
35
0
0
0
0
9
5
11
25
34
12
14
60

contingency table
fcst
obs
25
7
3
35
11
19
16
46
9
5
11
25
45
31
30
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
42
12
5
58
0
0
0
0
15
8
18
42
57
20
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
7
3
33
10
18
15
43
8
5
10
24
42
29
28
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.519
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.03 0.00 1.79
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.78 1.48 0.83
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.278
true Heidke skill score: 0.301 true Heidke skill score: 0.278
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.278
true Kuipers skill score: 0.295 true Kuipers skill score: 0.283
threat score:
0.568 0.000 0.393
threat score:
0.455 0.328 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.214 0.000 0.233
equitable threat score:
0.253 0.125 0.106
probability of detection:
0.735 0.000 0.786
probability of detection:
0.556 0.613 0.367
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.000 0.560
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.587 0.560
samples: 60 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 56.60 %coverage: 100.00