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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
9
0
0
0
0
14
17
5
36
22
17
6
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
9
15
28
18
61
14
17
5
36
37
45
24
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
0
2
20
0
0
0
0
31
38
11
80
49
38
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
8
14
26
17
58
13
16
5
34
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.289 hitrate: 0.387
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 0.00 6.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 1.36 1.50
Heidke skill score: -0.067 Heidke skill score: 0.080
true Heidke skill score: 0.106 true Heidke skill score: 0.055
Kuipers skill score: -0.067 Kuipers skill score: 0.080
true Kuipers skill score: 0.141 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.348 0.000 0.135
threat score:
0.211 0.359 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.194 0.000 0.006
equitable threat score:
0.139 0.040 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.364 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.216 0.622 0.208
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.000 0.861
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.541 0.861
samples: 45 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 42.45 %coverage: 100.00