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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
21
14
0
35
0
0
0
0
5
12
21
38
26
26
21
73

contingency table
fcst
obs
21
14
0
35
9
15
9
33
5
12
21
38
35
41
30
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
19
0
48
0
0
0
0
7
16
29
52
36
36
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
13
0
33
8
14
8
31
5
11
20
36
33
39
28
100

hitrate: 0.575 hitrate: 0.538
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.35 0.00 1.81
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.80 1.27
Heidke skill score: 0.363 Heidke skill score: 0.307
true Heidke skill score: 0.375 true Heidke skill score: 0.309
Kuipers skill score: 0.363 Kuipers skill score: 0.307
true Kuipers skill score: 0.384 true Kuipers skill score: 0.313
threat score:
0.525 0.000 0.553
threat score:
0.429 0.254 0.447
equitable threat score:
0.310 0.000 0.372
equitable threat score:
0.252 0.048 0.283
probability of detection:
0.808 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.600 0.366 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.447
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.545 0.447
samples: 73 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 68.87 %coverage: 100.00