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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
1
8
0
0
0
0
4
7
4
15
11
7
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
1
8
12
21
50
83
4
7
4
15
23
28
55
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
0
4
35
0
0
0
0
17
30
17
65
48
30
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
1
8
11
20
47
78
4
7
4
14
22
26
52
100

hitrate: 0.478 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.73 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 2.96 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.217 Heidke skill score: -0.047
true Heidke skill score: 0.246 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.217 Kuipers skill score: -0.047
true Kuipers skill score: 0.269 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.583 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.292 0.233 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.388 0.000 0.058
equitable threat score:
0.236 -0.014 -0.065
probability of detection:
0.636 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.304 0.750 0.073
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.000 0.733
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.747 0.733
samples: 23 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 21.70 %coverage: 100.00