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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
15
9
41
0
0
0
0
0
7
7
14
17
22
16
55

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
15
9
41
7
14
30
51
0
7
7
14
24
36
46
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
27
16
75
0
0
0
0
0
13
13
25
31
40
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
14
8
39
7
13
28
48
0
7
7
13
23
34
43
100

hitrate: 0.436 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.41 0.00 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.71 1.42 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.155 Heidke skill score: 0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.190 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.155 Kuipers skill score: 0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: 0.078
threat score:
0.415 0.000 0.304
threat score:
0.354 0.192 0.132
equitable threat score:
0.153 0.000 0.155
equitable threat score:
0.199 -0.060 0.020
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.438
probability of detection:
0.708 0.389 0.152
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.585 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.585 0.725 0.500
samples: 55 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 51.89 %coverage: 100.00