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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
0
12
0
0
0
0
7
13
6
26
16
16
6
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
0
12
24
25
19
68
7
13
6
26
40
41
25
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
8
0
32
0
0
0
0
18
34
16
68
42
42
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
23
24
18
64
7
12
6
25
38
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.395 hitrate: 0.377
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 4.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.66 1.04
Heidke skill score: 0.092 Heidke skill score: 0.066
true Heidke skill score: 0.203 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.092 Kuipers skill score: 0.066
true Kuipers skill score: 0.248 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.474 0.000 0.231
threat score:
0.209 0.298 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.283 0.000 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.116 -0.023 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.562 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.225 0.610 0.240
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.632 0.769
samples: 38 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 35.85 %coverage: 100.00