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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
6
17
0
0
0
0
9
36
8
53
12
44
14
70

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
6
17
6
21
9
36
9
36
8
53
18
65
23
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
11
9
24
0
0
0
0
13
51
11
76
17
63
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
6
16
6
20
8
34
8
34
8
50
17
61
22
100

hitrate: 0.157 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.42 0.00 3.79
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 0.55 2.30
Heidke skill score: -0.264 Heidke skill score: -0.047
true Heidke skill score: -0.045 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: -0.264 Kuipers skill score: -0.047
true Kuipers skill score: -0.067 true Kuipers skill score: -0.077
threat score:
0.115 0.000 0.136
threat score:
0.094 0.262 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.000 -0.054
equitable threat score:
0.004 -0.019 -0.062
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.571
probability of detection:
0.167 0.323 0.348
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.000 0.849
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.417 0.849
samples: 70 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 66.04 %coverage: 100.00