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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
33
30
63
0
33
35
68

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
5
33
38
0
33
30
63
0
38
68
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
0
0
0
0
49
44
93
0
49
51
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
5
31
36
0
31
28
59
0
36
64
100

hitrate: 0.441 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.93
Heidke skill score: 0.162 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.068 true Heidke skill score: -0.366
Kuipers skill score: 0.162 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.071 true Kuipers skill score: -0.390
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.441
threat score:
0.000 0.070 0.297
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.068
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.150 -0.172
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.857
probability of detection:
0.000 0.132 0.441
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.524
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.868 0.524
samples: 68 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 64.15 %coverage: 100.00