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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
32
34
0
0
0
0
0
10
51
61
0
12
83
95

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
32
34
0
5
8
13
0
10
51
61
0
17
91
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
34
36
0
0
0
0
0
11
54
64
0
13
87
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
30
31
0
5
7
12
0
9
47
56
0
16
84
100

hitrate: 0.537 hitrate: 0.519
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.76 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.305 Heidke skill score: 0.278
true Heidke skill score: -0.055 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.305 Kuipers skill score: 0.278
true Kuipers skill score: -0.109 true Kuipers skill score: 0.089
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.548
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.505
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.058
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.129 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.614
probability of detection:
0.000 0.294 0.560
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.164
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.615 0.164
samples: 95 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 87.96 %coverage: 100.00