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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
0
6
0
0
0
0
2
6
49
57
2
12
49
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
0
6
0
3
42
45
2
6
49
57
2
15
91
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
0
10
0
0
0
0
3
10
78
90
3
19
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
0
6
0
3
39
42
2
6
45
53
2
14
84
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.481
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 1.16
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 3.00 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: 0.222
true Heidke skill score: 0.242 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: 0.222
true Kuipers skill score: 0.199 true Kuipers skill score: -0.082
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.860
threat score:
0.000 0.053 0.495
equitable threat score:
-0.024 0.000 0.368
equitable threat score:
-0.014 -0.064 0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.538
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.140
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.933 0.140
samples: 63 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 58.33 %coverage: 100.00