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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
0
0
0
0
5
17
21
43
5
17
30
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
17
18
22
57
5
17
21
43
22
35
52
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
17
17
0
0
0
0
10
33
40
83
10
33
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
16
17
20
52
5
16
19
39
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.404 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 0.00 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 1.63 0.83
Heidke skill score: 0.106 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: -0.178 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.106 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: -0.163 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.404
threat score:
0.000 0.243 0.284
equitable threat score:
-0.066 0.000 -0.140
equitable threat score:
-0.062 -0.005 0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.700
probability of detection:
0.000 0.514 0.404
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.512
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.684 0.512
samples: 52 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 47.71 %coverage: 100.00