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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
0
0
0
0
7
16
9
32
7
16
18
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
15
27
26
68
7
16
9
32
22
43
44
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
22
22
0
0
0
0
17
39
22
78
17
39
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
14
25
24
62
6
15
8
29
20
39
40
100

hitrate: 0.220 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 0.00 1.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 1.58 0.73
Heidke skill score: -0.171 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.259 true Heidke skill score: -0.082
Kuipers skill score: -0.171 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.257 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.220
threat score:
0.000 0.321 0.134
equitable threat score:
-0.106 0.000 -0.187
equitable threat score:
-0.062 0.003 -0.072
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.628 0.205
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.719
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.603 0.719
samples: 41 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 37.61 %coverage: 100.00