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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200011

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
3
0
25
0
0
0
0
14
2
0
16
36
5
0
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
3
0
25
60
4
4
68
14
2
0
16
96
9
4
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
54
7
0
61
0
0
0
0
34
5
0
39
88
12
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
3
0
23
55
4
4
62
13
2
0
15
88
8
4
100

hitrate: 0.537 hitrate: 0.239
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.69 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 7.56 4.00
Heidke skill score: 0.305 Heidke skill score: -0.142
true Heidke skill score: 0.003 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.305 Kuipers skill score: -0.142
true Kuipers skill score: 0.006 true Kuipers skill score: -0.094
threat score:
0.564 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.222 0.055 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.611 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.229 0.444 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.120 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.120 0.941 1.000
samples: 41 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 37.61 %coverage: 100.00