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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
9
3
5
17
9
3
6
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
74
10
7
91
9
3
5
17
83
13
13
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
50
17
28
94
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
68
9
6
83
8
3
5
16
76
12
12
100

hitrate: 0.278 hitrate: 0.138
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 0.00 2.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.01 7.00 1.31
Heidke skill score: -0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.294
true Heidke skill score: -0.099 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.294
true Kuipers skill score: -0.106 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.278
threat score:
0.000 0.106 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.053 0.000 -0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.010 0.129
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.769 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.706
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.890 0.706
samples: 18 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 16.51 %coverage: 100.00