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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
18
25
0
0
0
0
2
9
1
12
5
13
19
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
18
25
7
47
19
73
2
9
1
12
12
60
38
110

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
49
68
0
0
0
0
5
24
3
32
14
35
51
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
16
23
6
43
17
66
2
8
1
11
11
55
35
100

hitrate: 0.108 hitrate: 0.464
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 0.63
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.08 1.22 0.32
Heidke skill score: -0.338 Heidke skill score: 0.195
true Heidke skill score: -0.202 true Heidke skill score: 0.068
Kuipers skill score: -0.338 Kuipers skill score: 0.195
true Kuipers skill score: -0.252 true Kuipers skill score: 0.069
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.033
threat score:
0.088 0.547 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.000 -0.217
equitable threat score:
0.009 0.156 -0.070
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.053
probability of detection:
0.250 0.783 0.026
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.880 0.000 0.917
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.880 0.356 0.917
samples: 37 out of 110 samples: 110 out of 110
%coverage: 33.64 %coverage: 100.00