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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
3
0
17
0
0
0
0
4
8
41
53
18
11
41
70

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
3
0
17
20
9
10
39
4
8
41
53
38
20
51
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
4
0
24
0
0
0
0
6
11
59
76
26
16
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
3
0
16
18
8
9
36
4
7
38
49
35
18
47
100

hitrate: 0.786 hitrate: 0.587
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 0.00 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.95 1.04
Heidke skill score: 0.679 Heidke skill score: 0.381
true Heidke skill score: 0.566 true Heidke skill score: 0.367
Kuipers skill score: 0.679 Kuipers skill score: 0.381
true Kuipers skill score: 0.494 true Kuipers skill score: 0.383
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.774
threat score:
0.341 0.180 0.651
equitable threat score:
0.579 0.000 0.453
equitable threat score:
0.230 0.043 0.424
probability of detection:
0.778 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.368 0.450 0.804
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.176 0.000 0.226
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.176 0.769 0.226
samples: 70 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 64.22 %coverage: 100.00