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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
11
16
28
1
11
16
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
35
44
80
1
11
16
28
2
46
60
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
39
57
100
4
39
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
32
41
74
1
10
15
26
2
43
56
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.472
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.74 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.208
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.208
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.385 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.016 0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.761 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.562 0.429
samples: 28 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 25.93 %coverage: 100.00