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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
3
12
0
0
0
0
6
10
15
31
8
17
18
43

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
3
12
14
26
25
65
6
10
15
31
22
43
43
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
16
7
28
0
0
0
0
14
23
35
72
19
40
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
3
11
13
24
23
60
6
9
14
29
20
40
40
100

hitrate: 0.395 hitrate: 0.398
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.72
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.55 1.51 0.72
Heidke skill score: 0.093 Heidke skill score: 0.097
true Heidke skill score: 0.064 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.093 Kuipers skill score: 0.097
true Kuipers skill score: 0.066 true Kuipers skill score: 0.034
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.441
threat score:
0.062 0.317 0.254
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.000 0.096
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.002 0.057
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.091 0.605 0.349
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.516
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.600 0.516
samples: 43 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 39.81 %coverage: 100.00