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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
11
7
25
7
11
7
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
23
31
83
7
11
7
25
36
34
38
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28
44
28
100
28
44
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
21
29
77
6
10
6
23
33
31
35
100

hitrate: 0.280 hitrate: 0.278
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.44 0.66
Heidke skill score: -0.080 Heidke skill score: -0.083
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.067
Kuipers skill score: -0.080 Kuipers skill score: -0.083
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.068
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.280
threat score:
0.000 0.245 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.046 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.676 0.184
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.720
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.723 0.720
samples: 25 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 23.15 %coverage: 100.00