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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
12
13
32
7
12
13
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
22
53
76
7
12
13
32
8
34
66
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
38
41
100
22
38
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
20
49
70
6
11
12
30
7
31
61
100

hitrate: 0.406 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.24 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.109 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.131
Kuipers skill score: 0.109 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.150
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.406
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.153
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.030 -0.100
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.647 0.197
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.594
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.711 0.594
samples: 32 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 29.63 %coverage: 100.00