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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
6
13
22
3
6
13
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
17
26
86
3
6
13
22
46
23
39
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
27
59
100
14
27
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
40
16
24
80
3
6
12
20
43
21
36
100

hitrate: 0.591 hitrate: 0.278
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.69
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.74 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.386 Heidke skill score: -0.083
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.386 Kuipers skill score: -0.083
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.591
threat score:
0.000 0.185 0.271
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.018 0.126
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.739 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.409
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.802 0.409
samples: 22 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 20.37 %coverage: 100.00