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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
6
5
11
1
8
7
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
30
34
27
91
0
6
5
11
31
42
34
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
13
31
0
0
0
0
0
38
31
69
6
50
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
28
32
25
85
0
6
5
10
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.374
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.17 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.061
true Heidke skill score: 0.080 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.061
true Kuipers skill score: 0.099 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.385
threat score:
0.029 0.343 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.147 0.000 0.023
equitable threat score:
-0.013 -0.027 0.041
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.032 0.810 0.147
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.626 0.545
samples: 16 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 14.95 %coverage: 100.00