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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
12
4
4
4
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
15
74
95
4
4
4
12
10
19
78
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
14
69
89
4
4
4
11
9
18
73
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.178
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 5.00 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.234
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.081
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.234
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.144
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.152 0.047
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.023 -0.061
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.051
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.842 0.667
samples: 12 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 11.21 %coverage: 100.00