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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
10
10
0
0
0
0
1
9
12
22
1
9
22
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
10
10
5
15
55
75
1
9
12
22
6
24
77
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
31
31
0
0
0
0
3
28
38
69
3
28
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
5
14
51
70
1
8
11
21
6
22
72
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.252
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
10.00 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 3.13 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.121
true Heidke skill score: -0.208 true Heidke skill score: -0.084
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.121
true Kuipers skill score: -0.240 true Kuipers skill score: -0.135
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.179 0.138
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.000 -0.185
equitable threat score:
-0.036 -0.027 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.545
probability of detection:
0.000 0.625 0.156
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 0.455
samples: 32 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 29.91 %coverage: 100.00