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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
13
25
40
2
13
25
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
23
37
68
2
13
25
40
10
36
62
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
33
63
100
5
33
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
21
34
63
2
12
23
37
9
33
57
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.444
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.89 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.167
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.167
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.284 0.325
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.639 0.403
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.662 0.375
samples: 40 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 37.04 %coverage: 100.00