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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
17
16
40
7
17
16
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
15
50
68
7
17
16
40
10
32
66
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
43
40
100
18
43
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
14
46
63
6
16
15
37
9
30
61
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.287
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.12 0.61
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.069
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.214
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.069
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.237
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.178
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.079 -0.129
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.469 0.242
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.779 0.600
samples: 40 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 37.04 %coverage: 100.00