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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
14
11
35
10
14
11
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
23
39
73
10
14
11
35
21
37
50
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
40
31
100
29
40
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
21
36
68
9
13
10
32
19
34
46
100

hitrate: 0.314 hitrate: 0.315
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.97 0.70
Heidke skill score: -0.029 Heidke skill score: -0.028
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.108
Kuipers skill score: -0.029 Kuipers skill score: -0.028
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.314
threat score:
0.000 0.264 0.149
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.032 -0.090
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.622 0.220
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.686
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.685 0.686
samples: 35 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 32.41 %coverage: 100.00