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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
14
14
29
1
14
14
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
9
67
79
1
14
14
29
4
23
81
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
48
48
100
3
48
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
8
62
73
1
13
13
27
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.483 hitrate: 0.213
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.43 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.224 Heidke skill score: -0.181
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.224
Kuipers skill score: 0.224 Kuipers skill score: -0.181
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.369
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.483
threat score:
0.000 0.097 0.146
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.103 -0.104
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.391 0.173
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.517
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.886 0.517
samples: 29 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 26.85 %coverage: 100.00