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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
33
9
0
42
0
0
0
0
0
7
14
21
33
16
14
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
33
9
0
42
14
23
7
44
0
7
14
21
47
39
21
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
52
14
0
67
0
0
0
0
0
11
22
33
52
25
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
8
0
39
13
21
7
41
0
7
13
20
44
36
20
100

hitrate: 0.746 hitrate: 0.654
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.27 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 1.13 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.619 Heidke skill score: 0.481
true Heidke skill score: 0.560 true Heidke skill score: 0.459
Kuipers skill score: 0.619 Kuipers skill score: 0.481
true Kuipers skill score: 0.528 true Kuipers skill score: 0.462
threat score:
0.786 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.589 0.383 0.500
equitable threat score:
0.550 0.000 0.571
equitable threat score:
0.388 0.158 0.414
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.702 0.590 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.214 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.214 0.477 0.333
samples: 63 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 58.88 %coverage: 100.00