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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
4
0
14
0
0
0
0
0
1
20
21
10
5
20
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
4
0
14
17
37
18
72
0
1
20
21
27
42
38
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
11
0
40
0
0
0
0
0
3
57
60
29
14
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
0
13
16
35
17
67
0
1
19
20
25
39
36
100

hitrate: 0.857 hitrate: 0.626
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 0.00 1.05
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.52 1.71 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.786 Heidke skill score: 0.439
true Heidke skill score: 0.737 true Heidke skill score: 0.410
Kuipers skill score: 0.786 Kuipers skill score: 0.439
true Kuipers skill score: 0.700 true Kuipers skill score: 0.395
threat score:
0.714 0.000 0.952
threat score:
0.323 0.481 0.513
equitable threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.889
equitable threat score:
0.235 0.179 0.398
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.370 0.881 0.526
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.000 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.286 0.486 0.048
samples: 35 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 32.71 %coverage: 100.00