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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
5
0
20
0
0
0
0
21
15
26
62
36
20
26
82

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
5
0
20
11
2
12
25
21
15
26
62
47
22
38
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
6
0
24
0
0
0
0
26
18
32
76
44
24
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
0
19
10
2
11
23
20
14
24
58
44
21
36
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.402
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.00 2.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 1.14 1.63
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.103
true Heidke skill score: 0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.099
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.103
true Kuipers skill score: 0.237 true Kuipers skill score: 0.103
threat score:
0.366 0.000 0.419
threat score:
0.288 0.044 0.351
equitable threat score:
0.193 0.000 0.150
equitable threat score:
0.144 -0.079 0.077
probability of detection:
0.417 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.319 0.091 0.684
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 0.581
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.920 0.581
samples: 82 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 76.64 %coverage: 100.00