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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
3
11
1
0
0
1
1
2
0
3
9
3
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
3
11
39
9
3
51
1
2
0
3
47
12
6
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
7
20
73
7
0
0
7
7
13
0
20
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
2
5
17
60
14
5
78
2
3
0
5
72
18
9
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.22 0.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 4.25 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.131
true Heidke skill score: -0.053 true Heidke skill score: -0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.131
true Kuipers skill score: -0.048 true Kuipers skill score: -0.058
threat score:
0.538 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.137 0.167 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.062 -0.053 -0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.009 -0.032
probability of detection:
0.778 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.149 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.824 1.000
samples: 15 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 23.08 %coverage: 100.00