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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
2
4
6
0
6
5
11
0
8
10
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
4
11
30
45
0
6
5
11
4
17
36
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
0
11
22
33
0
33
28
61
0
44
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
7
19
53
79
0
11
9
19
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.75 1.10
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.65 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.193 true Heidke skill score: -0.121
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.154
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.312
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.119
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.071 -0.112
equitable threat score:
-0.014 -0.064 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.647 0.139
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.756 0.545
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00