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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
0
0
1
1
0
4
8
12
2
5
10
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
0
18
22
40
0
4
8
12
2
23
31
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
6
6
24
0
0
6
6
0
24
47
71
12
29
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
7
0
32
39
71
0
7
14
21
4
41
55
100

hitrate: 0.588 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.20 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.74 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.382 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.237 true Heidke skill score: 0.146
Kuipers skill score: 0.382 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.231 true Kuipers skill score: 0.163
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.500 0.400 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.433 -0.052 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.481 0.055 0.048
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
1.000 0.783 0.258
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.550 0.333
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00