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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
1
1
2
4
0
0
4
4
2
3
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
17
11
21
49
0
0
4
4
18
13
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
18
0
27
9
9
18
36
0
0
36
36
18
27
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
30
20
38
88
0
0
7
7
32
23
45
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.33 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 3.77 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.304 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.250 0.167 0.667
threat score:
0.050 0.216 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.132 -0.019 0.476
equitable threat score:
0.002 -0.009 0.095
probability of detection:
0.500 0.333 0.667
probability of detection:
0.056 0.846 0.160
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.776 0.000
samples: 11 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 19.64 %coverage: 100.00