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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
1
2
1
4
0
2
7
9
2
8
8
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
1
16
25
42
0
2
7
9
2
22
32
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
22
0
28
6
11
6
22
0
11
39
50
11
44
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
0
9
2
29
45
75
0
4
13
16
4
39
57
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.50 1.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 1.91 0.28
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.314 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.344 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.167 0.200 0.700
threat score:
0.167 0.333 0.206
equitable threat score:
0.082 0.027 0.500
equitable threat score:
0.141 -0.016 0.064
probability of detection:
0.500 0.250 0.875
probability of detection:
0.500 0.727 0.219
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.500 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.619 0.222
samples: 18 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 32.14 %coverage: 100.00