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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
1
1
0
2
1
9
4
14
5
12
4
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
18
16
3
37
1
9
4
14
22
27
7
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
10
0
24
5
5
0
10
5
43
19
67
24
57
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
0
9
32
29
5
66
2
16
7
25
39
48
13
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.17 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 1.37 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.188 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.246 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.429 0.077 0.286
threat score:
0.125 0.333 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.311 -0.012 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.047 -0.061 0.148
probability of detection:
0.600 0.083 1.000
probability of detection:
0.136 0.593 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.500 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.568 0.714
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00