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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
3
2
2
7
2
1
5
8
9
5
7
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
16
12
14
42
2
1
5
8
22
15
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
10
0
29
14
10
10
33
10
5
24
38
43
24
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
29
21
25
75
4
2
9
14
39
27
34
100

hitrate: 0.524 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.40 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 2.80 0.42
Heidke skill score: 0.286 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.291 true Heidke skill score: 0.118
Kuipers skill score: 0.286 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.301 true Kuipers skill score: 0.127
threat score:
0.364 0.200 0.500
threat score:
0.167 0.267 0.227
equitable threat score:
0.169 0.040 0.318
equitable threat score:
0.076 0.022 0.119
probability of detection:
0.444 0.400 0.714
probability of detection:
0.182 0.800 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.714 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.714 0.375
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00