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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
0
0
0
0
6
2
1
9
6
4
5
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
17
16
16
49
6
2
1
9
23
20
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
27
40
0
0
0
0
40
13
7
60
40
27
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
6
9
27
25
25
77
9
3
2
14
36
31
33
100

hitrate: 0.067 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 2.45 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: -0.458 true Heidke skill score: -0.079
Kuipers skill score: -0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: -0.446 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.302 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.250 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.018 -0.075
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.673 0.889
samples: 15 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 23.44 %coverage: 100.00