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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4
2
2
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
19
27
13
59
1
2
1
4
21
29
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
20
40
20
80
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
30
42
20
92
2
3
2
6
33
45
22
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.03 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: 0.211 true Heidke skill score: 0.029
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.026
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.048 0.443 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.033 0.008 0.008
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.931 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.542 0.750
samples: 5 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 7.81 %coverage: 100.00